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We expect India’s central bank to leave rates on hold for now (05.30 BST) We think CPI inflation rose slightly in Brazil and Chile last month... ... while it may have reached nearly 20% in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the gold price has been …
7th April 2022
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose slightly in February (10.00 BST) We think Mexico’s inflation rose further in March, paving the way for a rate hike (12.00 BST) Canada’s federal budget may unveil a small increase in spending Key Market Themes We think …
6th April 2022
The resilience of the US stock market over the past month or so is hard to square with recent inversions in parts of the US Treasury yield curve. While we do not think that these inversions necessarily presage a recession, we nonetheless suspect that …
FOMC minutes may provide a clearer steer on plans for balance sheet reduction (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp Sign up for our Drop-In on the global inflation outlook here Key Market Themes The recent polling …
5th April 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep its policy rate at 0.1% (05.30 BST) The US trade deficit is likely to have narrowed in February... (13.30 BST) ...while the ISM services index may have rebounded in March (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
4th April 2022
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet (Wednesday) We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its policy settings unchanged… (Tuesday) …whereas central banks in Poland, Romania and Peru will probably hike …
1st April 2022
Even though the ejection of Russia from the MSCI EM EMEA Index has changed its country and sector composition, we doubt that this will meaningfully change how it tends to behave. Our forecasts for lower commodity prices and mediocre global growth suggest …
Given that the past couple of months has seen the outbreak of war in Ukraine, surging commodity prices, growing concerns about inflation, and increasingly hawkish noises from the world’s major central banks, it is not surprising that US Treasuries have …
31st March 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably rose to around 7.5% in March (10.00 BST) We anticipate a headline rise in US payrolls of 450,000… (13.30 BST) …and expect the ISM manufacturing index to have rebounded (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think China ’s stock …
China’s official manufacturing PMI may have fallen below 50 this month (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone unemployment declined to a record low in February (09.30 BST) Clients can now view our US Recession Trackers here Key Market Themes While the sell-off in …
30th March 2022
The Bank of Thailand will probably stand pat, despite higher inflation (08.00 BST) We suspect business confidence in the euro-zone has fallen sharply this month (10.00 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on how the war is affecting the euro-zone economy here Key …
29th March 2022
We think retail sales in Australia rebounded strongly in February (01.30 BST) Consumer confidence in the US probably fell further this month (15.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to deliver another 150bp rate hike (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even …
28th March 2022
We think that the poor performance of US REITs in 2022 so far – despite rising concerns about inflation – adds to the evidence that REITs are not necessarily a better inflation hedge than ordinary equities. Reflecting a post-lockdown boom in underlying …
25th March 2022
Virus restrictions probably caused China’s PMIs to drop back in March (Thursday) We suspect that US non-farm payrolls rose by 450,000 this month (Friday) Headline inflation in the euro-zone may have picked up to 6.7% in March (Friday) Key Market Themes …
We doubt Treasuries would underperform US equities as emphatically as they have in recent weeks if oil prices and inflation surged a lot more. Indeed, they could conceivably outperform – as they did at times in the 1970s – if that fostered expectations of …
We think Mexico’s central bank will hike its policy rate by 75bp (19.00 GMT) The rising cost of living probably weighed on UK retail sales in February (07.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes While not our …
24th March 2022
We expect Norway’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp… (09.00 GMT) …and anticipate a 75bp hike from Mexico’s central bank (19.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year Gilts …
23rd March 2022
Hopes for a large support package from UK Chancellor Sunak may be disappointed… …even though inflation in the UK probably reached a 30-year high last month (07.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In on the impact of war in Ukraine on commodity markets here Key …
22nd March 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 75bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the macro and market impacts of the war in Ukraine here Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes The post-FOMC …
21st March 2022
Flash PMIs for March to give first steer on how the war in Ukraine has impacted DM economies UK chancellor may announce a small support package for households in the spring statement We expect Mexico’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp on …
18th March 2022
We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We now also expect DM equities to be a bit lower by the end …
Bank of Japan may push back against speculation about policy tightening We suspect that Russia’s central bank will stand pat (10.30 GMT) Strong growth in Q4 may be as good as it gets for Chile’s economy (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The pound gave back …
17th March 2022
Their net fall since the invasion of Ukraine means the valuations of European equities are now even lower relative to those of US stocks. While valuations have a mixed track record at predicting returns over short periods, they are key to our view that …
The Fed is widely expected to begin its tightening cycle (18.00 GMT) We think the BoE will continue its own hiking cycle with another 25bp rate rise (12.00 GMT) US industrial production data may show output rose fairly strongly in February (13.15 GMT) Key …
16th March 2022
We think that US retail sales rebounded in February (12.30 GMT) The Fed is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike of this cycle (18.00 GMT) Brazil’s central bank may hike its policy rate by another 100bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With several …
15th March 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility Rate by 10bp We think unemployment in the UK continued to edge lower in January (07.00 GMT) Producer price inflation in the US probably remained elevated last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th March 2022
If the Russia-Ukraine war escalated, we would expect some of the recent patterns in relative asset market performance to continue to echo those during the 1973-74 oil crisis. That said, we wouldn’t expect US equities to perform as badly as they did then, …
11th March 2022
We expect the Fed and the BoE to raise their policy rates by 25bp… (Wed. & Thu.) … and Brazil’s central bank to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 11.75% (Wed.) In contrast, policymakers in Japan, Russia and Turkey will probably leave rates unchanged Key …
We think UK GDP will have reversed all of December’s drop in January (07.00 GMT) Higher oil prices probably weighed on US consumer confidence this month (15.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
10th March 2022
We estimate that US headline inflation reached 7.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Lagarde will probably try to strike a reassuring tone after tomorrow’s ECB meeting Korea’s presidential election too close to call ahead of final results tomorrow morning Key …
9th March 2022
Consumer price inflation in China probably remained subdued last month (01.30 GMT) … … while we think headline inflation in Mexico rose to almost 8% (12.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
8th March 2022
The war in Ukraine has challenged our view that US equities will underperform those in other developed markets (DMs) over the next few years. We are not yet ready to abandon this view while the outlook is still so uncertain. But if real Treasury yields …
We expect a 50bp rate hike in Poland, but there is a risk of a larger increase Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes History suggests that …
7th March 2022
China’s FX reserves data may reveal PBOC intervention (Mon.) We think the Russia-Ukraine war will mean the ECB delays its plans to normalise policy (Thu.) Core consumer prices in the US may have risen by less in February than January (Thu.) Key Market …
4th March 2022
This Update discusses three ways in which the outbreak of war in Ukraine has called into question our asset allocation views. While the situation is fluid and the outlook especially uncertain, it also provides our initial thoughts on how things might play …
The onset of other major conflicts and military-related crises have often seen global equity indices tumble, while moves in developed market government bond yields have depended on how energy prices and central banks responded. This suggests to us that …
While Russia’s financial markets have unravelled since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, global markets have so far held up relatively well. But the mood seems to have turned a bit in recent days, and there are now some early signs of financial stress …
3rd March 2022
Omicron outbreak probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 600,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes So far, …
While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market (DM) government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war causes a sharp fall in output in major DMs, which, …
2nd March 2022
We think Euro-zone unemployment fell to its lowest recorded level in January (10.00 GMT) The US ISM services index probably declined further in February (15.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market …
Euro-zone inflation may have risen to almost 6% in February (10.00 GMT) We expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates by 25bp and begin QT (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While the war in Ukraine has …
1st March 2022
New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which this marks the start of an enduring break in Russia’s …
28th February 2022
Inflation may have reached 5.5% in Germany in January (13.00 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell back a bit this month (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes Aside from Russia , most major …
We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week (Wednesday) Fading of Omicron virus wave probably boosted US non-farm payrolls in February (Friday) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes After a …
25th February 2022
President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia later on Thursday You can watch a recording of our latest Drop-In event on Russia-Ukraine developments here Also see here for all of our reports on the economic and market implications of the …
24th February 2022
Raft of speeches by Fed officials may shed more light on the likely size of the first rate hike We think Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.0% in mid-February (12.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here , and sign up for …
23rd February 2022
Our view that the US stock market will outperform Treasuries again this year is being called into question by a flattening of the yield curve. Nonetheless, we are not anticipating that it will invert, which has often been the precursor to a recession and …
We expect New Zealand’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 GMT) Sign up to hear our take on South Africa’s upcoming budget here Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While continued escalation of …
22nd February 2022
The German IfO Survey is likely to show continued price pressures (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes We doubt that the rise in …
21st February 2022
Although the Fed is poised to step on the brakes to tackle the highest rate of inflation in four decades, we don’t expect the yields of US equities and Treasuries to rise to anywhere near their peaks in 1982 after the central bank jacked up rates. …
18th February 2022
