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Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their relative performance. To re-cap, there was a marked reversal …
6th January 2023
Euro-zone inflation may have fallen to 9.2% in December (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls growth slowed to 160,000 in December (13.30 GMT) The US ISM Services survey will probably point to slowing momentum (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
5th January 2023
December FOMC minutes may reveal impact of softer CPI prints on Fed thinking (19.00 GMT) We think the US trade balance narrowed dramatically in November (13.30 GMT) Sign up for our Drop In on the outlook for global inflation here Key Market Themes …
4th January 2023
The US ISM Manufacturing Index may have dipped further in December (15.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold on Wednesday Read our key calls for the global economy and financial markets in 2023 here Key Market Themes After …
3rd January 2023
A renewed pullback in global equity markets and rise in bond yields in December is set to cap off a historically poor year for returns from both “risky” and “safe” asset classes. In fact, once the surge in inflation in 2022 is accounted for, returns …
22nd December 2022
We expect US data to show weak economic momentum in November (13.30 GMT) Clients can read our World In 2023 reports here … …and register for the related Drop-In sessions, in early January, on the same page The next edition of the Capital Daily will be …
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to hike by 25bp tomorrow (07.20 GMT) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave policy on hold (11.00 GMT) We think inflation in Mexico edged down in the first half of December (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We doubt the …
21st December 2022
The surge in government bond yields around the world in response to today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tweak its policy of Yield Curve Control (YCC) highlights the risks to international markets posed by the country’s huge investment overseas. …
20th December 2022
Headline inflation may have dropped back in Canada in November (13.30 GMT) We expect the Czech central bank to keep interest rates on hold (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the BoJ decision Key Market Themes Although …
We expect the PBOC to keep the Loan Prime Rate on hold (01.15 GMT) The BoJ will probably keep its policy settings unchanged… …and we think Hungary’s central bank will do likewise (13:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Investors seem to have priced in a more …
19th December 2022
We expect the BoJ to leave its policy settings unchanged next week… (Tue.) …and we think central banks in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey will do likewise Indonesia’s central bank will probably slow its pace of tightening to 25bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
16th December 2022
Fed strikes back but activity data suggests it will cut rates before the end of next year Markets take fright at ECB’s hawkish comments and the prospect of quantitative tightening Despite a dovish tone, the BoE may yet hike rates much further Key …
15th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook can be found here . Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic …
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50bp later today (19.00 GMT) The BoE will probably also slow tightening and hike by 50bp on Thursday… (12.00 GMT) … and we think the ECB will follow suit with a 50bp increase too (13.15 GMT) Key Market …
14th December 2022
We think UK CPI inflation held steady at 11.1% in November (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production probably fell by about 2% m/m in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the Fed to deliver a 50bp hike and project a higher peak in rates (19.00 GMT) Key …
13th December 2022
We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in October (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey may show an improvement in investor sentiment (10.00 GMT) US consumer price inflation probably fell back further in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With …
12th December 2022
The real returns from both US equities and 10-year Treasuries have often been quite good in the couple of years after past peaks in core inflation in the US, but the period following peak inflation in the early 1980s was an exception. We think that this …
We think US consumer price inflation continued to ease last month (Tue.) We expect the Fed to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Clients can register here for our Drop In for next week’s major central bank decisions (Thu.) Key Market …
9th December 2022
Even if oil prices don’t rebound substantially in the near term, we doubt developed market equities in the energy sector will reverse course and underperform the rest of the stock market next year. Developed market (DM) energy stocks have outperformed the …
We think price pressures in China cooled further in November… (01.30 GMT) … while a decline in US PPI could foreshadow a similar drop in CPI next week (13.30 GMT) University of Michigan consumer confidence is probably still historically weak (15.00 GMT) …
8th December 2022
We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. Our forecast is that there will be a mild economic downturn in the US …
We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp later today… (15.00 GMT) …but central banks in Brazil and Poland will probably keep rates unchanged Catch-up here on yesterday’s Drop-In on inflation in the US and the Euro-zone Key Market Themes An …
7th December 2022
Germany’s industrial output probably contracted by 0.5% m/m in October (07.00 GMT) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 5.5% y/y due to cooling global demand We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp, while Poland’s central bank stays …
6th December 2022
We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the cash rate by 25bp (03.30 GMT) The US international trade deficit probably widened sharply in October (13.30 GMT) Clients can sign-up here for a Drop In on our inflation outlook for the US and …
5th December 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have fallen in October (Mon.) We except another hike from central banks in Australia (Tue.), India and Peru… (Wed.) … while banks in Chile (Tue.), Poland and Brazil will probably keep rates unchanged (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
2nd December 2022
Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate effects played a big role in that as the US dollar weakened …
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November… (13.30 GMT) … while employment growth in Canada probably slowed to 25,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Catch up on our Drop-In discussing EM inflation dynamics here Key Market Themes The …
1st December 2022
While the progressive inversion of the Treasury yield curve may seem inconsistent with the recent rebound in risky assets in the US, they had already discounted some bad news about the economy. Nonetheless, we still think there is scope for the rally in …
30th November 2022
Fed’s Powell may push back against recent easing in financial conditions (Wed., 18.30 GMT) We think US manufacturing ISM may have slipped below 50 in November (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We will be hosting Drop-Ins on UK house prices and EM policy rates tomorrow …
Turkey’s GDP growth probably slowed in the third quarter (07.00) We think euro-zone inflation declined in October (10.00 GMT) Thailand’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although Bund yields have fallen today amid …
29th November 2022
The Euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Index is likely to have remained very weak (10.00 GMT) We think Germany’s HICP inflation stayed at 11.6% in November (13.00 GMT) Canada’s GDP growth probably slowed to 1.6% annualised in the third quarter (13.30 GMT) …
28th November 2022
We think the stretched valuations of Indian equities compared to those elsewhere will prevent the standout performance of Indian equities seen so far in 2022 being sustained over the longer run. The performance of India’s stock market has been fairly …
Euro-zone inflation may have risen again this month (Wed.) November’s US ISM manufacturing survey probably dropped below 50 (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November (Fri.) Key Market Themes Chinese equities have …
25th November 2022
We doubt the recent outperformance of equities vis-à-vis government bonds in the US will persist over the next three to six months, given our view that the economy there is heading for a mild recession in the spring of next year. We do think, however, it …
A fall in Tokyo’s inflation might suggest that Japan’s national inflation has peaked (Thu.) Catch up on today’s Asia Macro Drop-In, and all our Drop-Ins, here … …or check out our Weekly Briefing podcast episodes here Key Market Themes Despite the …
24th November 2022
We expect central banks in Korea, Sweden and South Africa to hike policy rates… …but think Turkey’s central bank will cut rates, and that a RRR cut is imminent in China Client can sign up here for our Drop-In on Asia’s big macro and market stories …
23rd November 2022
Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably hike by 75bp on Wednesday (01.00 GMT) We think South Africa’s inflation softened in October (08.00 GMT) We expect UK Flash PMIs to show further weakness in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Supply …
22nd November 2022
We expect Nigeria’s central bank to hike by 100bp to 16.5%… …but Hungary’s central bank is likely to keep policy settings unchanged (13.00 GMT) We think retail sales in Canada fell by 1.0% m/m in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
21st November 2022
Our downbeat economic forecasts for the euro-zone underpin our view that equity markets there will fall further in the coming months. Within the region, we think the downside risks for equity prices are largest in southern Europe. Even after falling by …
18th November 2022
We expect 75bp rate hikes from central banks in New Zealand, Sweden and South Africa We think flash PMI data for November will show that activity contracted in the UK… (Wed.) …as well as in Germany, France and in the euro-zone (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
Japan’s headline inflation probably rose to 3.5% in October (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We think UK retail sales volumes were flat in October (07.00 GMT) We suspect Chile’s GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The market reaction to …
17th November 2022
We suspect the underperformance of US equities that has accompanied the US dollar’s slump so far this month will become a feature from mid-2023, as the currency eventually comes under sustained pressure. Since the end of October, MSCI’s USA Index has …
16th November 2022
We think US housing starts fell in October on the back of rising mortgage rates (15.00 GMT) We expect the central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines to raise rates Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (16.00 GMT) Key …
Higher utility prices probably pushed UK CPI inflation higher in October (07.00 GMT) We think US retail sales increased by 1.3% last month… (13.30 GMT) … but we expect industrial production to have risen by a more-muted 0.2% (14.15 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2022
Activity data likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month… (02.00 GMT) …but we expect the PBOC to refrain from cutting its MLF rate tomorrow We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in September (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th November 2022
We think economic activity was weak in China in October, but probably held up in the US We expect central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia to hike rates (Thu.) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (Thu.) Key Market …
11th November 2022
The news that the authorities in China plan to “optimise” their response to the pandemic while not abandoning their zero-COVID policy has coincided with a surge in its stock market. There is still a risk that this somewhat lighter-touch approach will lead …
We think Malaysia’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3… (04.00 GMT) … and the UK economy contracted, marking the start of a recession (07.00 GMT) Consumer sentiment in the US probably remained low in early November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US …
10th November 2022
We doubt the recent underperformance of UK high-yield corporate bonds relative to those in the euro-zone will continue given the relative outlooks for monetary policy and economic growth. Corporate bond yields in developed markets (DMs), as measured by …
We think US consumer price inflation fell back in October (13.30 GMT) Mexico’s central bank is likely to deliver another 75bp hike… (19.00 GMT) … but we expect policymakers in Peru to keep interest rates on hold (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
9th November 2022
