Filtered by Region: Europe Use setting Europe
France is likely to give up its recent status as the euro-zones star performer in the next two years, losing ground mainly to Germany. But with household finances and the banking sector in a fairly healthy state, the economy should remain pretty close to …
30th September 2009
Initial yields on European industrial property have risen further from their trough in mid-2007 than office and retail yields. This could be due to a sharper downward revision in investors’ rental growth expectations for industrial property. Rather, we …
28th September 2009
Today’s broad money data revealed that there are still few signs that the ECB’s provision of unlimited liquidity to banks is boosting broad money and credit growth. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
25th September 2009
Q2’s Irish GDP figures provide some hope that the economy is not about to go into full-blown meltdown. But a sustained period of positive growth remains a distant prospect. … Irish recovery remains a distant …
24th September 2009
In our most recent Euro-zone Commercial Property Analyst (Vol. No. 2/2009) we forecast that Greece and Ireland would experience the largest falls in retail rental values. The agents’ latest data support that prediction. Moreover, with both the Greek and …
With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect rates to rise as rapidly as the markets currently envisage. …
23rd September 2009
Retail and industrial rental values in Sweden have held up well relative to the office sector since the onset of recession. This is somewhat surprising given the huge rise in unemployment and collapse in industrial production. But pressures on rental …
22nd September 2009
The outcome of Sunday’s German election may have some bearing on the pace of fiscal consolidation. But, whichever coalition prevails, fears of early and particularly aggressive policy tightening seem overdone. Accordingly, we still think that the outlook …
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast a little, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
17th September 2009
The release of further details of the Irish Government’s “bad bank” plans does little to change our view that bank lending will continue to contract for a sustained period. Ultimately, further measures will probably be required to get the banking sector …
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast alittle, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
On the face of it, the surge in euro-zone new car sales over recent months seems like good news for the region’s beleaguered vehicle producers. Nonetheless, we doubt that this will prompt much of a pick-up in production in the near term. This supports our …
16th September 2009
The stock market rally has pushed the equity dividend yield down, making euro-zone commercial property look more attractive relative to equities, on one measure at least. However, the spread of the property initial yield over the dividend yield is still …
15th September 2009
Weak occupier demand pushed rental values down in most markets. Investment activity was very subdued, particularly in Emerging Europe. Initial yields in Emerging Europe rose in all sectors while yields in Western Europe showed some signs of stabilising. … …
10th September 2009
The clear improvement in indicators of domestic activity and an upward revision to our forecast for the US have prompted us to raise our projection for euro-zone GDP growth next year. The recovery is still unlikely to be as sharp as that in the US over …
9th September 2009
After leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.0%, the ECB once again underlined its reluctance to follow other central banks in implementing bolder unconventional measures. Nonetheless, any tightening of conventional monetary policy seems a long way off. … …
3rd September 2009
The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25% and signal that rates may remain unchanged for around another year supports our view that markets may have got ahead of themselves in forecasting rate hikes by early 2010. … …
Industrial yields in Spain and Portugal moved out sharply in the first half of 2009. This is not surprising given the outlook for rental values in these economies as the recession bites. We expect only slow, drawn-out recoveries in both Spain and Portugal …
Q2’s modest 0.1% quarterly contraction in euro-zone economic activity was an encouraging sign that the recession is nearing its end. Admittedly, the improvement compared to Q1’s 2.5% drop was partly related to a boost from public spending, which will not …
The ECB will leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% at its September policy meeting and is very unlikely to announce any new unconventional policy measures. The Bank is likely to treat recent signs of improvement in the economy with caution, supporting our …
28th August 2009
The latest survey data from the ISAE show that Italian household confidence rose for the fifth consecutive month in August. On the face of it, this is encouraging news for the Italian retail commercial property market. However, we suspect that any …
27th August 2009
The latest euro-zone money figures provided little sign that the ECB’s recent continued provision of liquidity to banks has prompted them to increase their lending to the wider economy. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
The outlook for the German occupier market remains weak, despite the fact that the economy grew in Q2. We think that the labour market, which has held up well to date, could weaken in the second half of the year as the impact of government support fades. …
25th August 2009
Paris has been among those Western European cities which have seen the sharpest declines in office rental values to date. However, we do not think that Paris has suffered disproportionately. Rather, government support packages for labour markets in other …
21st August 2009
The latest comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirm that it will maintain its strong policy stimulus for the foreseeable future, helping to reduce the significant risk of a sustained period of deflation. But we still expect the Swiss economy to …
19th August 2009
Greece has so far weathered the global economic downturn rather well. In fact, it is the only eurozone economy yet to have entered a technical recession. But next year, we still expect it to begin to lag behind its neighbours. A return to the growth rates …
18th August 2009
European investment transactions rose marginally in Q2, but remain very low. Although upward pressure on yields abated, we are not convinced that property is fairly valued yet. Occupier demand remains weak and we expect further falls in rental values in …
Government incentive schemes to boost new car demand have, to date, been very successful. The surge in new car registrations in Europe should support occupier demand for industrial and logistics space in the major car production and end-user markets. But …
13th August 2009
June’s surge in exports brought hope that the key German external sector is on the road to recovery. Unfortunately, there are good reasons to think that the pace of improvement will slow sharply in the coming months. But we still expect a relatively …
12th August 2009
Recession in the European economy is hitting the labour market hard. Recent survey data from the European Commission show that employment intentions in the service sector may be turning a corner, but for now remain weak. What’s more, office rental values …
Government incentives to buy new cars probably prompted euro-zone consumer spending to rise at the strongest rate in two years in Q2. But this boost will be partly reversed as the schemes are phased out next year. And in the meantime, any positive effect …
11th August 2009
After leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.0% at it August meeting, President Trichet suggested that the ECB is unlikely to adopt new measures to stimulate the economy in the immediate future. We have not given up hope that the Bank will eventually act …
6th August 2009
Recent weeks have seen some signs of an improvement in the consumer sector. Although retail sales fell by 0.4% in Q2, the drop was not as sharp as Q1’s 0.8% fall. Together with a 12% surge in car sales, this points to an increase in total spending in Q2 …
5th August 2009
Headline rental values in emerging European commercial property markets have been under downward pressure from both weak occupier demand amid the global economic downturn, and from currency depreciation. Despite the worst of the latter appearing to be …
4th August 2009
July’s pick-up in the Swiss manufacturing PMI was an encouraging sign for the industrial sector, as is the Swiss National Bank’s continued intervention to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc. But with exports and industrial output yet to respond …
3rd August 2009
The Irish Government’s plans to set up a “bad bank” should eventually help to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the size of banks’ losses. But the sheer scale of the problems in the banking sector, coupled with the fact that some details of the plan …
31st July 2009
The damaging effects of the recession and financial crisis have almost certainly hit the euro-zone’s productive potential, suggesting that conventional estimates of spare capacity exaggerate the amount of slack in the economy. But, even accounting for …
30th July 2009
The ECB looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% at its August policy meeting and is very unlikely to announce any new measures to stimulate the economy. The Bank is biding its time for now, hoping that its generous liquidity provision will …
The latest global property survey from the RICS, released earlier this week, adds to the mounting, but tentative, evidence that investor demand for European commercial property could be stabilising. While this may be the case, however, any improvement is …
Today’s bank lending survey from the ECB, suggests that there is little imminent prospect of an end to the tightening in credit availability and lending criteria for euro-zone businesses. For property markets this suggests that a lack of bank finance will …
29th July 2009
The recent decline in the spread between German and other euro-zone government bond yields is an encouraging sign that rising fiscal deficits in the region are unlikely to lead peripheral governments’ interest rates to spiral higher. But we suspect that …
28th July 2009
The latest euro-zone money figures revealed that lending growth continues to slow. Of course, other things, equal, the ECB’s recent 12-month liquidity injection should help to boost bank lending in the months ahead. But on balance, we still expect lending …
27th July 2009
Recent data show yields stabilised in most euro-zone office and retail markets in 2009Q2. While there are reasons to believe this may be the peak for yields, we are sceptical. Investor demand has picked up, but is still down on 2008 levels. And the small …
23rd July 2009
The recent appreciation of the euro is yet to have had an impact on euro-zone import prices, due to the normal lags between these two variables. But it soon will. What’s more, with spare capacity mounting at home and abroad, the future depreciation of the …
21st July 2009
In its blueprint for the budget law (DPEF in Italian) – the Italian Government reiterated its commitment to fiscal consolidation. Because of Italy’s huge public debt, this is a formidable challenge, especially given the current economic situation. With …
20th July 2009
In the current uncertain environment, any upturn in commercial property investment flows is likely to centre on Europe’s largest, most transparent markets. Yet investors will also be looking for markets with the best chance of delivering a sustained …
16th July 2009
