Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions? Could a new government usher in an era of more aggressive fiscal spending – including on defence – and structural reform? Will Germany's new …
7th February 2025
After last month’s shock postponement, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is finally expected to present a 2025 national budget on 12th March. But the ANC and DA have been arguing about fiscal plans, and we think Mr Godongwana faces a …
7th March 2025
With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this special briefing to gauge the size and scope of the global response to the …
4th April 2025
Five years on and the pandemic is continuing to impact real estate, influencing how we work, where we live and how we spend. But while some structural shifts are now better understood, there’s widespread uncertainty about how they are likely to develop …
9th May 2025
Markets have received a boost from news that the US and China have agreed to a significant rollback of tariffs. But how durable is this agreement – and will it mark a real turning point in bilateral trade tensions? Senior economists held a special …
12th May 2025
South Korea’s snap presidential election comes at a critical juncture. Its next leader inherits an economy grappling with faltering domestic demand, an aging population and mounting pressure from a protectionist US administration. Will the election …
29th May 2025
Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term. But could forces like shifting demographics and AI play a greater role in shaping long-term …
18th February 2025
Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to withdraw the US as the backstop of the continent’s security. But how much of …
20th February 2025
Senior economists from across our Macro and Markets teams hosted this special online briefing all about how economies throughout Asia, Europe and the Americas are faring in the shadow of the Trump trade agenda. During the session, they answered questions …
31st March 2025
The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs. How will heightened macro uncertainty shape the Governing Council’s decision and communications? …
7th April 2025
Rising risks to the UK economy present a challenge to the recovery in housing transactions. But will they be enough to dampen demand – and what could that mean for our above-consensus forecasts for house price growth beyond 2025? Our UK macro and property …
24th April 2025
Our EM economists provided their immediate response to the South Africa budget in this 20-minute online briefing. During the session, the team addressed key issues, including: How policymakers are plugging South Africa’s budget gap; How concerned …
15th May 2025
Our Emerging Europe team hosted this election post mortem to unpack the Romania and Poland election results, and their implications for the economies. During this session, the team addressed key topics including: Whether, following its sizeable …
How has China’s economy been performing under the weight of higher tariffs? Which sectors are lending most support to growth? What are its manufacturers doing to evade the higher duties? Our team of economists discussed the latest monthly refresh of our …
23rd May 2025
Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner. But how far will the RBA go to cut rates, and how could its strategy be influenced by the …
China’s additional retaliatory tariff of 50% on US imports marks another worrying escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. In this special online briefing, our senior economists answered client questions and addressed key …
9th April 2025
We’d been warning for months about the supply risks to oil prices, so Saturday's OPEC+ decision to add 410,000 barrels per day from June wasn't surprising in that sense. Our Commodities team hosted this online briefing on where oil prices are now heading, …
25th April 2025
Our EM economists hosted this special briefing all about the economic outlook for Central and Eastern European economies. The team addressed the opportunities and risks that lie ahead for this region, including: The potential for the region’s economies to …
19th May 2025
A court ruling against the administration has thrown Trump’s flagship tariffs into legal uncertainty, potentially disrupting the White House’s efforts to levy duties on US trading partners and strike new trade deals. Is this just a temporary setback or a …
21st May 2025
Our Commodities team hosted this online briefing all about the latest price action across markets. During this 20-minute session, the team addressed key issues, including: The takeaways from the latest OPEC+ meeting; Which industrial metals markets are …
Consumption rebound looking shaky Growth in retail sales and wider consumer spending accelerated last quarter, buoyed by the consumer goods trade-in scheme and broader fiscal support. But this recovery appears to have stalled at the start of 2025. Both …
Fiscal restraint, monetary easing It’s been a busy week on the domestic policymaking front. The FY25/26 Union Budget contained some tax breaks aimed at boosting household consumption, but fiscal prudence was still very much the order of the day: the …
Trade war begins: winners and losers in Asia Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on China (along with those threatened for Mexico and Canada) could prove to be the start of a protracted trade war. (See here .) While there is a lot of uncertainty over what will …
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more support for the economy. We think a further 75bps of cuts …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German industry ends 2024 in poor health The sharp drop in German industrial production in December means output fell for a third successive quarter in Q4. Looking ahead, s …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Housing market continues to shrug off sluggish economy The 0.7% m/m rise in the Halifax house price index in January is at odds with the muted 0.1% m/m increase in the Nationwide …
New governor kicks off easing cycle The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more support for the …
Pickup in consumption won't nix RBA rate cut Data released this week suggest that the Australian consumer felt rather upbeat last quarter. To start with, we learnt that retail sales held steady in December, a better result than most had anticipated. As a …
Wage growth strongest since 1997 According to the preliminary estimate released this week, labour cash earnings rose by 4.8% y/y in December, the largest increase since 1997. But while those strong gains boost household incomes, on their own they don’t …
Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world economy from Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Our senior economists hosted an online client …
6th February 2025
Banxico steps up easing as it adopts a more dovish tone Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in …
We expect the Bank of England to cut faster and further than investors expect, pushing Gilt yields down and in turn weighing on the pound. The Bank of England (BoE) cut its Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.5% today, as widely expected. Even so, the tone of the …
The UK stock market appears to be riding high – the FTSE 100 has hit a record high. But local-currency returns from UK equities have been flattered by a weaker pound. In common-currency terms, UK stocks have performed much less impressively, and we expect …
The threat of US tariffs will hang over the economy for the foreseeable future, weighing on confidence and reducing investment. We have therefore revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%, from 1.8%. We still expect the Bank of Canada to cut …
Even if mortgage rates drop back slightly and house price growth cools over the next few years as we expect, renting will remain the more cost-effective option, supporting apartment demand. Southeast and West Coast apartment markets stand to gain the …
Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday is set to be a tight race, with a second round run-off in April likely to be needed to separate the two leading candidates. Among the next government’s multiple challenges are improving the security situation and …
A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly, with the supply backdrop likely to remain constrained for …
A stabilisation in capital values and decline in interest rates have sparked optimism that we may be past the worst of the real estate debt refinancing challenge. That indeed looks to be the case in the UK. However, euro-zone banks are still pulling back …
Despite Donald Trump cutting deals with Mexico and Canada, we are not backtracking from our revised view that the Fed will stay on the sidelines for the next six months. (See here .) What’s more, if US tariffs end up close to our assumptions, we think the …
While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25 basis point (bps) cut in seven months, the Bank of England showed some signs that it may cut rates faster and further than our forecast of a decline to 3.50% by early 2026. …
We’d previously argued that President Trump was likely to try to bring the MENA region into the US’s sphere of influence, but controversial statements on the future of Gaza have brought that into question. In a joint press conference with Israeli Prime …
Easing cycle resumes, rates on their way to neutral The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would …
For updated and more detail analysis see here . Dovish development adds downside risk to our forecast for Bank Rate to fall to 3.50% While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25bps cut in seven months, the Bank of …
Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its debt pile. If sovereign default was to occur, the lesson …
Retail sales lose momentum in Q4 December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales means that growth over Q4 as a whole slowed substantially. We suspect that spending growth will remain subdued in the coming quarters. The 0.2% m/m decline in euro-zone retail …
Rise in interest rates puts a dampener on construction activity The headline CIPS construction PMI dropped to 48.1 in January, from 53.3 in December, indicating the first contraction in activity since February 2024. The decline in the headline balance …
Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will probably continue to cut interest rates only gradually. …
5th February 2025
Survey evidence remains soft The fall in the ISM services index to 52.8 in December lends some support to our view that GDP growth will slow in the next couple of quarters, albeit with the caveat that the surveys have proved to be a poor guide to GDP in …
