Despite the rumours, the Chinese government isn't about to abandon zero-COVID. Although new measures to tweak the rules raise hopes of a near-term end to the draconian policy, Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard explain the many difficulties involved …
11th November 2022
This year’s has been a dollar rally for the ages, but recent weeks have seen the currency come under pressure. That’s fuelling talk that the greenback is finally past the peak with only downside ahead. Jonas Goltermann and Jonathan Petersen from our FX …
18th November 2022
Recent data releases suggest the global economy is holding up better than anticipated by gloomy forecasts (including ours). But it's far too soon to breathe a sigh of relief. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil …
25th November 2022
China's zero-COVID policy is under mounting strain as the economy reels and public anger grows. The government is responding but will it be enough to bring relief to China's economic outlook and its beleaguered public? And what do record infection numbers …
1st December 2022
The Ever Given made worldwide headlines when it became stuck in the Suez Canal in March 2021. The cargo ship's dilemma symbolised global supply chain disruptions that were reflected in a record surge in shipping costs. But those costs are now falling as …
2nd December 2022
Last week was a relatively quiet one for markets. The same won’t be said about this coming week. US inflation data and a slew of central bank decisions will give investors plenty to chew over as they scan for signs that the end of monetary tightening …
10th December 2022
Say what you want about 2022, but it wasn’t a dull year. After 12 months of geopolitical upheaval, the biggest inflationary spike in decades, central bankers going full Volcker and giant swings in financial markets, what will 2023 bring? In this special …
16th December 2022
The Bank of Japan's last policy meeting of 2022 was a big one, with a surprise announcement of changes to its yield curve control policy. In this special episode, Marcel Thieliant, who leads our Japan coverage, speaks to David Wilder about out what the …
20th December 2022
Not only have emerging market economies, for the most part, come through this aggressive global tightening cycle without being plunged into a 1980s or 90s-style debt crisis. In many cases, their central banks were raising rates even as their advanced …
12th February 2023
A stunning January jobs report has shifted the market narrative around the US economy, but has the fundamental story really changed that much? And does the economic picture justify the market’s bullish start to 2023 or have investors been partying in the …
9th February 2023
In this episode: Forecasts are being revised up, the global tightening cycle is slowing down and markets are cheering. But are things really looking better? Group Neil Shearing reviews the recent data – including January’s stunning US payrolls numbers – …
5th February 2023
In this week's episode: It's a big week for markets, with US December payrolls due and the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England all set to deliver their first policy decisions of the year. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what to expect, …
29th January 2023
Headlines have been dominated by talk of what follows this most recent era of globalisation, forming the basis of this year’s Davos meetings and a new IMF paper warning of a potentially major hit to the global economy. It’s a theme we’ve been discussing …
22nd January 2023
This special episode is all about property markets, with Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell leading wide-ranging discussions about what to expect in 2023 and some key sector trends. In this episode: Andrew outlines our forecasts for US, UK and …
17th January 2023
China’s economy was tied down by the government’s tough zero-COVID regime. And then it wasn’t. The virus appears to have ripped through much of China’s urban population in the wake of the dramatic policy U-turn by Beijing, setting the stage for a dramatic …
15th January 2023
Market implied rates suggest that investors expect inflation to normalise in the US and Europe in the next couple of years. While we share that view, we think they are overestimating the level of policy rates required to achieve inflation targets. As a …
8th September 2023
It was meant to be a discussion all about the upside and downside risks that clients should keep an eye on in 2023. But a growing online debate about attempts to push the renminbi in energy trade between China and the GCC countries sidetracked it. Group …
6th January 2023
It may be too soon to say that the banking turmoil is definitively over, but it’s not too early to try to understand why events of the past few weeks are going to leave a painful legacy for the US economy. Chief US Economist Paul Ashworth talks to David …
1st April 2023
How will the ructions in the banking sector be reflected in the data? Tracking the credit impact of March’s events isn’t as straightforward as it appears, says Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing . He talks to David Wilder about how to cut through the …
14th April 2023
Julian Evans-Pritchard , our Head of China Economics, talks to Steven Altman , Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, about what lies ahead for globalisation in an age of economic fracturing. …
20th April 2023
It’s one of the big questions in markets after March’s banking sector turmoil but the prevailing guides to financial conditions don’t paint a very clear pictures. That’s why Simon MacAdam, our Senior Global Economist, has revamped and relaunched our …
21st April 2023
After months of resistance, China has been making positive noises around talks on restructuring the debt of a number of EM borrowers. But William Jackson , our Chief EM Economist, isn’t optimistic. He talks to Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams about the …
30th April 2023
Two weeks into the banking sector turmoil and there are few signs that the panic is ending. David Wilder speaks to Neil Shearing about why investors are still uneasy, whether central banks have made a mistake, and why there's growing focus on commercial …
26th March 2023
As the dust began settling on a hastily arranged takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, our economists briefed clients on what’s next in this recent surge in turmoil in the banking sector. In these excerpts from the briefing, you’ll hear them discuss key …
20th March 2023
A rushed deal for UBS to take over embattled rival Credit Suisse ahead of the start of the Monday open is the latest effort by authorities to restore market confidence and staunch a crisis in the banking sector that is now threatening to run into its …
19th March 2023
Was Silicon Valley Bank's failure an isolated case of bad balance sheet management, or does it point to the start of another financial crisis? As policymakers scrambled to shore up market confidence ahead of the open, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing …
12th March 2023
It’s US payrolls week and all eyes will be on whether January’s blowout jobs growth number was just a one-off or confirmation that – despite the Fed’s actions – the labour market remains tight. Labour market conditions matter hugely for how much further …
5th March 2023
By mid-century, India will have risen to become the world’s third biggest economy. But China will remain at number two, despite forecasts that it is set to overtake the US. These are findings from our latest Long Run Economic Outlook, a report which looks …
24th February 2023
Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago this week, prompting a torrent of prediction about how much this singular moment would change Europe’s economy forever. 12 months later, David Wilder talks to Andrew Kenningham, our Chief Euro-zone Economist, and Liam …
19th February 2023
Could turmoil in the US banking sector mark the end of Fed rate hikes? What are the contagion risks from the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank? What will the regulatory response look like? This is a special Capital Economics Weekly Briefing episode all …
13th March 2023
China data for May fell short of expectations and Capital Economics clients want to know what the government’s going to do about it. Our China Drop-In was one of two online briefings we held for them last week, along with our post-Fed, post-ECB, pre-Bank …
18th June 2023
In this special episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, our team of property economists explain how commercial and housing markets are faring in a world of rapid and large increases in interest rates. Taking in everything from the crisis in …
21st June 2023
After that shock CPI report and the Bank of England’s aggressive response, Neil Shearing discusses whether the UK is a high inflation-slow growth outlier. Along with his survey of the latest advanced economy data, the Capital Economics Group Chief …
23rd June 2023
Accusations of ‘greedflation’ are flying thick and fast, fuelling public anger over rising prices, putting executives on the defensive and pressuring politicians to do something. But are companies really taking advantage of inflation’s return to maximise …
2nd July 2023
We've just published our Q3 Outlook reports for the global economy and markets. They tell a fairly grim near-term story of inflation, recession and weaker equities prices. But there's nuance within that narrative, including emerging markets outperformance …
7th July 2023
US stocks ended the week with a broad rally in the wake of the May jobs report, but the S&P 500’s performance this year has been mostly dictated by the outsized strength of just a handful of giant tech firms. Oliver Allen and Adam Hoyes from our Financial …
4th June 2023
These are not normal economic times and that makes the job of policymakers – and economists – that much harder. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about why this cycle is unlike any other, but also why it's likely to end in …
9th June 2023
Neil Shearing says the UK’s April CPI report was a “horrorshow”. The Capital Economics Group Chief Economist tells David Wilder why sticky inflation readings make recession more likely – despite the popular view that a downturn can be avoided – while …
27th May 2023
The cover story of The Economist magazine this past week has been largely based on our long-held view that China’s economic growth would slow to just 2% by the end of this decade, and wouldn’t surpass the US as the world’s biggest economy. The Capital …
21st May 2023
The sick man of Europe. Broken Britain. Stagflation nation. The UK has had an unenviable post-pandemic economic recovery, lagging other advanced economies on growth but ahead of the pack when it comes to inflation. But how much of what ails the UK economy …
18th May 2023
The White House and congressional leaders are still working to try to reach agreement on raising the debt ceiling, but there’s no guarantee that a deal will get done in time. Deputy Chief US Economist Andrew Hunter and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas …
12th May 2023
Last week began with another US bank failure and ended with hotter-than-expected headline jobs data. In between, Jerome Powell sounded optimistic about the likelihood of a soft economic landing. But how realistic is that? Group Chief Economist Neil …
7th May 2023
Central bankers are driving the global economy into its steepest downturn in four decades, barring the GFC and the pandemic. But which economies will be hardest hit and how will the onset of recession change the inflation-monetary tightening calculus? …
31st October 2022
The recent rise in oil prices to $90 per barrel means CPI inflation is likely to rise from 6.8% in July to 7.1% in August, but it won’t prevent inflation falling to the 2% target by the middle of next year. Even if oil prices climbed to $100 per barrel, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rebound in hiring should ease recession concerns The rebound in employment and larger increase in hours worked in August suggest the economy bounced back following some of the …
The UK government’s failure to award any new offshore wind-power contracts in its latest procurement round ultimately stems from bean-counting stinginess and is nothing that a lot of extra government investment won’t fix. But with the days of ever-cheaper …
The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that policymakers are underestimating the challenge of …
Having remained resilient over the past months, inflows into EM bonds and equity markets have turned negative in recent weeks. Inflows into Turkey have weakened despite August’s sharp interest rate hike and while India has continued to see notable …
Geopolitics loom large over New Delhi showcase Following the success of the Chandrayaan-3 mission to the south pole of the moon in August, this weekend’s G20 summit in New Delhi will undoubtedly be presented as another foreign policy triumph by the BJP as …
Headline inflation jumps in August The long and steady decline in inflation across Emerging Asia came to an end last month, with headline inflation picking up in all six countries that have so far reported August price data. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: …
