Retail sales in China are more than ten times larger than the country’s exports to the US. As such, domestic goods consumption would only need to rise by a few percent over the next couple of years to fully offset the hit from US tariffs. But this would …
22nd April 2025
The pandemic-driven reduction in office-based footfall in city centres has weighed heavily on many urban environments, particularly in the US. But if cities can find ways to align incentives with other stakeholders and re-shape those environments to …
The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates on Thursday and we think monetary conditions will be loosened a lot further than most expect over the course of this year. That said, administered price hikes and spillovers of the US-China …
Odds of a May rate cut shorten The weaker-than-expected Polish industrial production and wage data for March have increased the probability that the central bank (NBP) will restart its easing cycle at its next meeting in May, but that decision will still …
If President Donald Trump does fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, we suspect that the initial market reaction might not be disastrous, as long as Trump quickly lines up a relatively-qualified replacement, like Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh. In all likelihood, …
21st April 2025
Neil Shearing has been in back-to-back meetings with global institutions who – like everyone – are trying to make sense of Trump’s chaotic trade policy roll-out, not least the recent decision to pause "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. The Group Chief …
17th April 2025
Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its current level and that the euro will give back some of …
While the turmoil across financial markets has eased a bit this week, the dollar has continued to weaken across the board. The gap between actual exchange rates and what short-term interest rate differentials point to has widened a bit further, suggesting …
Markets were almost evenly split on what the Bank of Canada would do yesterday, right up until the last minute. In the end, the Bank opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, rather than loosen policy by an additional 25bp. In his opening …
More cuts to come from the ECB This week’s decision by the ECB to cut interest rates came as no surprise, and the Bank’s overall messaging reinforces our view – which is shared by investors – that the Bank will keep cutting. (You can read our response …
Recession looking even less likely For all the recent anguish about tariff-induced equity selloffs and plunging sentiment, this week served as a valuable reminder that the only true measure of the health of the US economy remains the hard data. On …
April 2025– Capital Economics, a world-leading provider of independent economic insights, has been officially accredited as a Great Place to Work Certified™ organisation. Certification™ is a milestone achievement, backed by validated and anonymous …
Pharmaceuticals tariffs incoming A US import levy on pharmaceuticals would be a blow to India’s economy but far from a fatal one. Admittedly, India has been dubbed the “pharmacy of the world” and its success in the industry has helped its pharmaceuticals …
The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.5% to 2.25% today was expected. And the monetary policy statement sent a clear signal that the Bank will cut rates further to counter the impact of trade policy uncertainty. We are forecasting two more …
CBRT hikes rates amid significant capital outflows Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a hawkish surprise in raising its one-week repo rate to 46.00% today. While this won't tighten monetary conditions, it does formalise the tightening delivered …
Argentina: a step in the right direction It’s been a busy week for Argentina. Following the announcement of a fresh $20bn IMF deal over the weekend, authorities announced that from Monday a raft of capital controls would be eased and Argentina would move …
SARB’s inflation uncertainty may be falling The SARB’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) published this week set out plenty of upside risks to inflation. But it looks like some of the risks from VAT hikes and tariffs have diminished, which could give the SARB …
The latest sell-off in equities is still a long way from the scale of those market corrections which coincided with recessions in the past. As things stand, the ~14% fall in the S&P 500 since February is unlikely to have notable negative implications for …
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) …
Fall in starts not a major concern The sharp fall in housing starts in March is less concerning than it seems at first glance, partly reflecting a normalisation in homebuilding after February’s weather-driven surge, rather than a collapse in the sector. …
Lower oil demand forecasts are not low enough The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though the forecasts still appear overly rosy. Given the uncertainty …
ECB acknowledges downside risks from trade uncertainty While the ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.5% to 2.25% today was expected, the monetary policy statement clearly points to further policy easing to come. The statement says the outlook …
Our base case is that the turmoil across financial markets in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement will continue to stabilise. As such, we assume that most asset prices and the dollar will recover some ground, with equities faring …
CBRT signals tight policy here to stay The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to hike its one-week repo rate by 350bp, to 46.00%, formalises the emergency monetary tightening delivered last month and is a strong signal of commitment to a tight …
Electronics reprieve may prove short lived The US tariff exemptions announced last Friday on various electronics products, including on smartphones, semiconductors and TVs, represent a further let-off for Asia after the decision to pause the reciprocal …
The news on inflation this week was pretty good even before any influence from the US tariffs chaos has been felt. Although average earnings growth stayed close to 6.0% in February, pay growth on the more timely PAYE measure slowed to 5.4%. (See here .) …
Both sides are taking an axe to economic ties We’ve argued for years that geopolitical forces are fracturing the global economy into blocs, with the key fault line being the US-China rivalry. Until recently, this had been a gradual shift that was …
Gulf reins in oil overproducers Recent moves to hike OPEC+ oil output quotas but make overproducers cut production suggests that the Gulf economies are taking a firmer line on regaining global oil market share. But fresh falls in oil prices could scupper …
The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral institutions – and the threat of US withdrawal. An end to (or …
RBA will go slow and steady The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting revealed that the Bank’s decision to leave rates unchanged at 4.10% was underpinned by its view that risks to its outlook were two-sided. Granted, that assessment was made prior to Trumps’ …
The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged, but the dovish commentary from the press conference and the statement suggest further cuts are coming. We are sticking with our view that rates will end the year at 2.0% (from 2.75% currently). The …
Tariff impact may not be as big as feared The OIS markets imply that it’s a coin flip whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates again this year. That makes sense because the Bank sent some rather dovish signals this week. Governor Ueda noted in an …
Strong labour market lessens the need for aggressive cuts With the labour market broadly on solid ground, we expect the RBA to deliver only a shallow easing cycle. The 32,00 rise in employment in March was a touch softer than the 40,000 increase that we …
Interest rates on hold, but BoK to resume easing cycle soon The Bank of Korea today left its main policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, but we think this represents a pause not an end to the easing cycle. The decision was correctly predicted by 24 out of 37 …
Exports will rebound across Q2 While export values fell in March, we expect them to rebound over the coming months as US consumers rush to place orders before the suspension of reciprocal tariffs ends in July. The annual increase in export values slowed …
RBNZ won’t fret the modest uptick in inflation Although headline inflation in Q1 was stronger than it had anticipated, we suspect the RBNZ will take comfort from the fact that measures of core inflation continued to fall towards the mid-point of its 1-3% …
The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.75% today was not a big surprise given recent above-target core CPI gains, concerns about tariff-induced price rises and uncertainty about the extent to which the economy requires additional policy …
16th April 2025
The February activity figures out of South Africa showed that the economy was struggling even before the added headwind from US import tariffs. But while there are downside risks to growth, we still believe a combination of easing loadshedding and …
Overview – Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing Congress soon recycles the tariff revenue into …
Bank holds but further cuts likely amid dovish communications The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.75% today was not a huge surprise given recent above-target gains in core prices, concerns about future price increases and …
The extremely high US import tariffs imposed on China will likely strengthen the forces that have driven multinational corporates to shift production for the US market away from China and towards other EMs in recent years. Those EMs with spare capacity in …
Tariff hit yet to come The fall in industrial production in March was not as bad as it looks given that it was driven solely by a large weather-related drop in utilities output. Manufacturing enjoyed a strong first quarter with output rising by 5.1% …
Consumption growth rebounds following weather-related weakness A presumably temporary pre-tariff surge in motor vehicle sales drove the strong 1.4% m/m increase in retail sales in March. But there was also a big 3.3% m/m rebound in building materials …
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '25) …
German retail performance has been among the worst in the euro-zone for most of the last decade. A combination of declining vacancy, better affordability and reduced online leakage point to a relative improvement. But any recovery is likely to be slow and …
March’s decline in services inflation was entirely due to transport, which in turn reflected past moves in oil prices and Easter timing effects. But the fundamentals still point to continued declines in underlying price pressures this year. And higher US …
Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) …
We think China will continue to allow the renminbi to weaken, perhaps all the way to 8.0/$ . Today’s market moves in China emphasise yet again how US trade policy remains the key driver of financial markets right now. Despite a stronger-than-expected Q1 …
