We expect recent mortgage rate declines to support stronger lending and sales, prompting us to raise our end-2025 existing home sales forecast to 4.35m annualised, up from 4.15m. However, based on our relatively hawkish Fed view versus the market, we expect the downward trend in rates to soon reverse, curbing the recovery and pulling transactions back to 4.25m by end-2026 and 4.20m by end-2027.
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