Skip to main content

Fed close to peak in rates as activity stagnates

Commentators were quick to dismiss the latest decline in the leading indicators index, which left it pointing unambiguously to a recession. But despite the apparent resilience of fourth-quarter GDP growth, it appears the economy is on the precipice of a recession and may already have fallen over the ledge. With consumption contracting sharply over the final couple of months of last year and the inadvertent fourth-quarter inventory build likely to be quickly reversed, we now forecast that first-quarter GDP will contract by 1.5% annualised.

Central Bank Drop-In (2nd Feb., 11:00 EST/16:00 GMT): Join us for this special 20-minute online session when we’ll be taking your questions and highlighting key takeaways from the first Fed, ECB and BoE policy decisions of the year. Register here. Register now.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access