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US Metro Employment (Aug.)

Delta variant fears resulted in leisure and hospitality employment falling in 12 of the 30 metros. Of these, Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte and Dallas were the worst hit. Leisure and hospitality employment remains below its pre-virus level in all metros, while office-based jobs have recovered their shortfall in 14.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Chart Book

Another punchy quarter, but capital growth set to slow

Setting aside the drag from net exports on GDP growth, Q1 was another strong quarter for both the domestic economy and commercial real estate markets, highlighted by a record first quarter for investment volumes. But occupier demand is slowing in all four sectors (albeit from record highs in industrial) and the sharp hike in alternative asset yields is already squeezing property valuations. As a result, we think that investment totals should slow in H2 and commercial real estate yields, particularly in the apartment sector, will begin to rise.

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Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever

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UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Aug.)

Net lending to property decreased for the third consecutive month in August, driven by falls in both lending for standing investment and development. Looking ahead, we think that tight credit conditions and the slow recovery in investment will weigh on lending to commercial property this year.

29 September 2021

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Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner

Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a dwindling supply pipeline to limit rental declines over the next few years more so than in the other major metros.

17 September 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Jul.)

Job growth showed no sign of slowing in July, with gains in the leisure & hospitality sector continuing to drive the recovery. This benefitted Boston, Washington D.C. and New York City significantly, but still left employment in the six major metros 5%-10% below their pre-COVID levels.

1 September 2021
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