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NCREIF Q1 NPI shows more pain to come

While the headline of the Q1 NCREIF NPI data (-0.9% q/q total return) suggests we could be near the end of the price falls, we think this simply stored up bigger falls for the rest of the year. The growing share of underwater loans, as well as the far higher average cap rate on assets divested from the index, suggest there is plenty more pain to come.

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