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West coast markets facing another beating in 2024

The performance of the 17 office markets we forecast will continue to be driven by structural factors over the next couple of years. That points to further weakness in the six major markets, where traffic and long commutes are a major drag on office attendance, as well as some western markets, where there are higher shares of office workers in tech and related sectors. That leaves the southern markets as relative winners, although Austin stands out negatively due to its huge supply pipeline, a factor that also completes a double whammy against Seattle. As a result, we forecast Seattle to see the largest capital value falls over the next two years, at more than 25%, whereas the best-performing southern metros – Atlanta, Miami and Dallas – are predicted to see just another 10%. And while we expect to see a recovery further out, the southern metros again lead due to their underlying demand strength.

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