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UK Markets Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

The rebound in the activity data in November has convinced investors that the first interest rate cut will happen later, in August next year instead of June. Our view that core inflation will ease only slowly explains why we think interest rates won’t be cut until late in 2024. But we think a mild recession will mean rates can be cut faster and further than investors expect in 2025, to 3.00% instead of 4.00%-4.25%.

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