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S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Mar.)

The continued strength of the construction PMI in March suggests that activity in the sector increased despite ongoing headwinds from supply constraints and cost inflation. The rise in new orders suggests that will continue in the near term but concerns about the outlook further ahead are mounting.
Pieter Du Preez Property Economist
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UK Housing Market Data Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jun.)

Monthly house price inflation slowed in June to its lowest since last September according to the Nationwide, while the annual rate continued to edge lower. That is consistent with our view of steady deceleration through the year, followed by single-digit annual price falls in both 2023 and 2024. Real Estate Drop-In (6th July, 2022): Join our US Commercial Property team for this 20-minute briefing on why we think this is the market top – and how far we expect returns to fall. Register now.

30 June 2022

UK Housing Market Update

Cost inflation to ease alongside new home volumes

After reaching a record-high in June, we think that inflation in builders’ costs will soon start to ease. But even as cost pressures subside, construction volumes will slump as the housing market slows.

28 June 2022

UK Housing Market Update

Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move

We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’ financial firepower. If left in place, it could have led to a far larger house price fall than the 5% drop we forecast.

20 June 2022

More from Pieter Du Preez

UK Commercial Property Update

Will the London retail premium be reasserted?

The rental growth premium enjoyed by Central London shops has disappeared in the pandemic. And we don’t expect it to reopen, as lower footfall in the capital, the slow recovery in tourist arrivals and higher vacancy rates weigh on rental growth.

1 April 2022

UK Commercial Property Data Response

Lending to commercial property (Feb.)

Net lending to property eased further in February, though it remained in positive territory. We expect lending trends to remain fairly subdued as both economic and sector specific challenges loom over the coming months.

29 March 2022

UK Commercial Property Update

Is the north-south divide closing for industrial?

The latest data from the industrial sector were predictably upbeat with strong take-up and dwindling supply driving rapid rental growth. There were also signs of important shifts across UK markets that we think may be significant enough to re-cast our short-term forecasts in favour of the northern regions.

25 March 2022
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