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UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024)

The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be over. This suggests that the risks to our -0.1% q/q forecast for real GDP in Q1 lie to the upside.

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