The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only gradually. But with wage growth excluding bonuses stuck at 5.0%, on balance today’s data release probably isn’t enough on its own to tip the scales for the hawkish members of the MPC towards one more 25 basis point interest rate cut this year, from 4.00% now to 3.75%. The Bank probably needs to see more falls in services CPI inflation, so the next few inflation prints will be crucial.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services