The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only gradually. But with wage growth excluding bonuses stuck at 5.0%, on balance today’s data release probably isn’t enough on its own to tip the scales for the hawkish members of the MPC towards one more 25 basis point interest rate cut this year, from 4.00% now to 3.75%. The Bank probably needs to see more falls in services CPI inflation, so the next few inflation prints will be crucial.
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