OPEC+ talks, strike in Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidies

Reports that OPEC+ may suspend Russia from its oil output deal reinforce our view that the Gulf states will raise production faster later this year. Meanwhile, Tunisia’s largest trade union called this week for a national strike in response to government proposals for cuts to the public sector wage bill, underlining that pushing through fiscal tightening will prove difficult and a sovereign default is almost inevitable. And in Egypt, plans to overhaul bread subsidies have been shelved which will require spending to be restrained in other areas to keep the public finances on a sustainable footing.