Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG

A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil supply increasing faster than we expect. Meanwhile, the decline in Saudi inflation in June may provide support to household spending, boosting the non-oil economy. Elsewhere, Egypt will resume its LNG exports in the autumn, providing a timely fillip to hard currency revenues.