Skip to main content

What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico?

The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter, Mexico would be one of the most affected EMs. And even in the former, Mexico’s trading relationship with the US is likely to encounter more friction given Trump’s broader focus on border security. That is likely to dent optimism about near-shoring in Mexico – and investment inflows into the country. Higher US import tariffs and a strong dollar environment could lead to sharp falls in the peso and higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to gain:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services

Get access