Even if Omicron proves more transmissible than Delta, its impact on Japan’s economy could vary substantially depending on how deadly it is, how well it evades vaccines, and PM Kishida’s appetite for draconian containment measures. With supply shortages already severe, fresh restrictions on Japanese manufacturers’ global supply chains coupled with a global shift in spending away from services and back towards goods could cause input price pressures to intensify further. However, we doubt any resulting boost to core goods inflation would do much more than simply offset a drag from energy inflation. As such, core inflation would stay well short of the BoJ’s 2.0% target, keeping rate hikes off the table.
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