The prospect of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency has prompted us to raise our forecasts for US growth and inflation but we have left our economic forecasts for the rest of the world largely unchanged. The main short-term effect may be felt in financial markets due to an even greater divergence in monetary policy between the US and elsewhere. Further ahead, though, there is a growing risk that protectionism will undermine global trade and growth.
There is still plenty of uncertainty about what President-elect Trump will do, but in this note we summarise the key points from research sent to clients over the past two weeks. A selection of our publications from our various regional and country services on the impact of Trump is listed on page two.
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