Rising oil prices won’t cause the ECB to hike rates

The increase in oil prices over the past few months will have only a small impact on euro-zone inflation, so it won't alter the outlook for monetary policy. We still expect that the ECB will keep its deposit rate at 4.0% for the next 12 months. Meanwhile, Norges Bank and the Riksbank raised rates by 25bp this week, but the SNB kept rates unchanged. We think those central banks are either at, or very near, the peak of their tightening cycles. Next week, we expect to learn that inflation fell significantly in the euro-zone in September.