Recession risk looms over ECB meeting

Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will have some new and gloomy data releases to contemplate when they gather in Frankfurt next week. Indeed, the euro-zone economy looks likely to be slipping into recession in the second half of this year. However, we still suspect that the Governing Council will raise its deposit rate by another 25bp to 4.0% on Thursday. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next week that the inflation rate for August fell very sharply in Sweden and less sharply in Norway.

Note: We’ll be discussing the ECB September rate decision – along with those of the Fed and the Bank of England – in a ‘Drop-In’ on Thursday, 21st September. Register here to join the online briefing.