Even the hawks on the ECB Governing Council have seemed reluctant to call publicly for a 100bp hike at the Bank’s late-October meeting, but we still think that is the most likely decision and expect policy rate to rise to around 3% in the coming months. Meanwhile, we are somewhat bemused by the ECB’s wish to start discussions about QT. With pressures likely to mount on peripheral yields, is seems more likely that it restarts QE before long. Next week the first of the October business surveys will probably add to the gloom about the economic outlook.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services