The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in Central Europe held up better thanks to the strength of domestic demand. Turkey’s economy probably grew in Q1 after two quarters of contraction (its GDP data are due in June). But the sell-off in Turkish markets and associated tightening of financial conditions has raised the risk of a renewed fall in GDP in Q2.
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