Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat

Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left interest rates on hold at 19.00% today and, with inflation likely to remain elevated over the coming months and the economy having bounced back quickly from May’s lockdown, an easing cycle is unlikely to commence until the tail end of 2021.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Surging virus cases and the re-imposition of lockdowns

A renewed wave of COVID-19 cases has prompted some governments to reimpose strict containment measures across Emerging Europe and talk of lockdowns is now becoming more widespread. The experience so far during the pandemic is that tighter containment measures need not result in a large hit to activity. But the latest virus waves add to the growing near-term headwinds in the region from rising inflation and supply disruptions to industry and we think that recoveries will slow sharply in Q4.

22 October 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again

Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle again at today’s meeting with a larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate hike, to 7.50%, and the hawkish tone of the accompanying communications suggest that further tightening will be needed. We think the policy rate will be hiked to 8.25% by year-end and remain higher than most expect throughout 2022.

22 October 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut

Any remaining confidence in the credibility of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) was shattered after today’s larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate cut, to 16.00%. The lira hit a fresh record low against the dollar and we think that it will continue to weaken as President Erdogan piles on the pressure for further easing. The risk of another balance of payments crisis akin to that in 2018 will continue to grow.

21 October 2021

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Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.)

Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for June confirm that the economy bounced back quickly from May’s three-week lockdown. This, coming alongside the further jump in inflation in July, means that the central bank is likely to stand pat at the MPC meeting later today.

12 August 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The further jump in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 19.0% y/y in July is unlikely to trigger an interest rate hike but it will delay the start of an easing cycle until the back end of this year. China slowdown webinar: Join us on Thursday, 5th August for a special webinar assessing the impact of China’s economic slowdown on the global recovery. Neil Shearing will lead a discussion with economists from across our economics and markets services to assess whether investors should brace for fresh volatility with China poised for a structural deceleration. Register here for sessions at 0900 BST/1600 HKT or 1100 ET/1600 BST.

3 August 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals

Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation. Meanwhile, further details of the “Polish Deal” published this week suggest that policymakers' focus is on increasing demand rather than the economy’s supply potential, increasing the risk of overheating.

30 July 2021
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