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Erdogan ahead, but the economy may pay the price

Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday was close, but Erdogan performed better than recent polls had suggested and he now has the edge ahead of a second round run-off on 28th May. Hopes of an opposition victory and a return to orthodox policymaking have evaporated. Instead, there is now a very real risk that an Erdogan victory could lead to macroeconomic instability in Turkey, including the threat of a severe currency crisis and strains in the banking and sovereign debt positions further down the line.

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