Russian inflation came in slightly softer than expected in February, at 11.0% y/y, and it will fall to the central bank’s 4% target in March as base effects pass through. We don’t think there’s been enough evidence in the past month to convince the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting next week, but we still think it will deliver a 50bp rate hike (to 8.00%) at its following meeting in April.
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