The trade war between the US and China so far appears to have had a small negative impact on most of the region, although some countries, most notably Vietnam, look to be benefiting as US demand has shifted away from China towards alternative suppliers. While the upcoming G20 meeting may bring a truce, there is a risk that the situation ultimately escalates much further. In the event of a full-blown global trade war, a number of the region’s economies would be tipped into recession, while no part of Emerging Asia would escape unscathed.
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