We are pushing back the timing of when we think the central banks of the Philippines and Indonesia will cut interest rates. Although inflation is within target in both countries and domestic demand is struggling, concerns about currency falls mean they are unlikely to cut rates before the US Fed. And with our US team having recently pushed back the timing of when they think the Fed will cut rates (from March to May), we now expect BI and the BSP to loosen policy in May (our previous forecast was for an April cut). Meanwhile, the further drop in inflation in Korea last month reinforces our view that the BoK will also cut rates at its May meeting, sooner than when the consensus expects.
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