It was another good week for the price of oil as concerns about lower Iranian output as a result of US sanctions continued to lift prices. In contrast, a ratcheting up of the US rhetoric on protectionism lead to further falls in most industrial metals markets. That said, there was relief for a few metals used heavily in the transport sector following the announcement of a provisional US-Mexico trade early in the week.
US trade policy will remain in focus next week as the public comment period on the proposed $200bn of US tariffs on Chinese goods ends next Thursday. However, the market reaction could be quite muted given that the tariffs have been on the cards for some time and metals prices, in particular, have already fallen sharply.
On the data front, we could see higher commodity prices early in the week if the Caixin August manufacturing PMI for China on Monday mirrors the tick-up in the official PMI, published today. The US employment report is also set to be released next week (Friday). Given that the consensus is for solid growth in non-farm payrolls in August, the price of gold could benefit if the data are weak.
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