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How much would a Trump tariff hurt China?

An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With exports to the US driving only 3% of China’s GDP and few alternative suppliers of the electronics products that form a large part of shipments from China, the aggregate impact on China’s economy would be surprisingly small.

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