The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an
alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has spread to 18 of
China’s 31 provinces in three months), the pick-up in pork prices so far has been slightly less sharp than
during previous epidemics. This is an encouraging sign that officials may be managing ASF
better than previous outbreaks. Of course, with ASF not yet contained there is a risk that pork prices will
jump over the months ahead. But even if this happened, pork’s smaller weight in China’s consumer price basket compared to 2007 and 2011 should limit its influence on headline inflation.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services