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Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun 2025)

The strong 83,100 rise in employment and the dip in the unemployment rate in June suggests the labour market is in better shape than we had feared, despite ongoing uncertainty around Canada’s trade relationship with the US. While there are question marks about whether this momentum can be sustained, this outcome raises the risk that the Bank of Canada may deliver fewer than the two rate cuts we expect this year, which is already more than markets have priced in. 

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