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Sounding hawkish, but data may soon change the BoE’s tune

At the policy meeting on Thursday 21st March, the Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row and retain its hawkish guidance. But we suspect the data will allow for rate cuts sooner than the Bank suggests and we still think rates will fall to 3.00% in 2025 rather than to 4.00% as priced into the market.

Note: We’ll be discussing the outlook for Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 21st March. (Register here.)

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