Several Australian states have started to end their lockdowns and will probably relax restrictions on economic activity further over the next few months. A rapid easing would pose upside risks to our forecast of a 25% q/q plunge in consumption in Q2. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Statistics is struggling to collect prices for many services that are currently not available as a result of government restrictions. Once those figures are available again, we think that underlying inflation will fall towards 0%.
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