Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, we expect the RBNZ to keep cutting rates by 50bp at its next two meetings. We expect rates to fall to 2.25% by end-2025, far lower than most anticipate. By contrast, the RBA is unlikely to loosen policy before Q2 2025, making it the last advanced economy central bank to do so. Given the tight labour market and elevated levels of public demand, the scope for rate cuts will be modest. Although we expect activity to gain traction in both economies over the coming quarters, growth is likely to remain below trend in the near term.
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