The military coup in Gabon this week, coming so shortly after a coup in Niger, has raised further concerns about political instability and institutional frailty in the region. But we’d be wary of drawing links between the two given the very different natures of their economies and political structures, and the different proximate causes for military takeovers. Indeed, most research suggests that there’s little to back up the idea of ‘coup contagion’. Elsewhere, South African Q2 GDP figures due next week will underscore that the economy is struggling to eke out any growth.
Note: We’ll be discussing heightened EM political risk – including coups in West Africa and Russian macro instability ahead of next year’s election – in a Drop-In on Thursday, 7th September. Register here to join.
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