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Why halving inflation is not enough to save Sunak’s election vows

“Those politicians have got some work to do,” says Paul Dales from Capital Economics. Dales says: “I don’t want to be sort of a downer on it all, but I don’t think politicians have a very good ability to reform the economic landscape. In all honesty, I think the economic forces just outweigh whatever the politicians do. “The Bank of England is saying there’s going to be zero growth at all between now and the second quarter of 2025. Now, it could be worse. It could be forecasting a recession like we are, but the message is essentially that the economy is just going to move sideways.” Dales says: “If you’ve got an economy that’s not performing very well, it usually pushes voters away from the incumbent government and towards change. Sunak has got a pretty big task to try and convince everyone that you can change the economic fortunes of the UK.”

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