Brazil Votes 2022
Everything you need to know about the economic and market implications of Bolsonaro vs Lula.
Will Jair Bolsonaro secure a second term as Brazil's president, or will Lula cap a stunning political comeback? Brazilians go to the polls on 2nd October, with voting to go a second-round run-off on 30th October if neither candidate wins 50% in the first vote. Check back here for our latest research on the election and its implications for Brazil’s economy and financial markets.
LATIN AMERICA ECONOMICS UPDATE
Brazil Election Watch –The state of the race
Our latest update on October's vote discusses why investors shouldn't take either candidate's manifesto at face value, but also why neither Bolsonaro nor Lula are likely to tackle Brazil's deep-seated economic problems if they win.
Our latest Brazil coverage
Read our latest research on Brazil's economy and financial markets.
Which candidate in the Brazilian election will be better for the economy?
Current polling suggests that Lula is ahead of Bolsonaro by quite a large margin and his manifesto does point to a sharp leftwards turn but it's quite likely that the Lula presidency wouldn't be as radical as that manifesto suggests. He has, for example, appointed a centre-right politician as his vice-presidential candidate, indicating that he could govern as more of a moderate. Jair Bolsonaro is at the other end of the ideological spectrum and is campaigning on a pro-market agenda. So there are two quite different candidates but neither is likely to address some of the deep-seated issues in Brazil's economy. Neither are showing any appetite for the fiscal austerity needed to consolidate the public finances and it's also unlikely that we'll see the necessary reforms to address weak productivity growth. The upshot is that we'll probably see quite weak growth in Brazil over the coming years and the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise again from next year.
Latin America Economics Update
Brazil: tightening cycle now over but rates to stay high
The Brazilian central bank’s decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% after 12 consecutive hikes makes it one of the first central banks globally to bring its tightening cycle to an end...