We expect government bond yields to fall back this year as central banks, including the Fed, cut interest rates by more than investors are currently discounting. Our expectation that 'safe' asset yields will fall, alongside our view that global growth will pick up, informs our forecasts for good returns from ‘risky’ assets over 2024-25. We expect equity returns to be particularly strong as an AI bubble continues to inflate, with the US stock market remaining around the front of the pack. Such US equity outperformance would probably offer the US dollar some support; but we don't think the greenback will rise much more from here over the rest of the year.