Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q2 2023)

The better than expected pick-up in Russia’s GDP growth in Q2, to 4.9% y/y, confirms that the economy had a strong first half of the year. But with limited slack in the economy, this is likely to...

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. A...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Activity Data (Apr.)

The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Turkey for April suggest that GDP growth is likely to have remained subdued this quarter following the Q1 slowdown. A shift towards economic...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (May)

Russian inflation picked up slightly to 2.5% y/y in May and we think it will rise above the central bank’s 4% target in the coming months. Against a backdrop of large upside inflation risks and the...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (May)

The fall in Turkish inflation to 39.6% y/y in May was largely driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, while core inflation increased . Bringing inflation down sustainably will require a major policy...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs (May)

The manufacturing PMIs for May across Emerging Europe were either flat, or edged up slightly, providing further evidence that the worst of the regional downturn is probably now behind us. That said...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Apr.)

The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q1 2023)

Turkey’s economy shrugged off the impact of the earthquakes in February and grew by 0.3% q/q (4.0% y/y) in Q1. GDP growth is likely to remain soft in q/q terms this year, but a continuation of...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Poland Activity Data (Apr.)

Industrial production and retail sales data for April for Poland were generally on the weak side and suggest that the economy lacked momentum at the start of Q2. We think activity will soon bottom out...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia GDP (Q1 2023)

The smaller-than-expected 1.9% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has turned a corner and that growth accelerated in q/q terms at the start of this year. Industry and...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Israel GDP (Q1 2023)

GDP growth remained fairly solid in Israel in Q1 (2.5% q/q annualised) as it came in slightly above expectations thanks to an unexpected surge in business investment. We think growth will come in...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2023)

Q1 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe were fairly weak on the whole, but Poland’s economy beat expectations and the worst of the regional downturn now appears to have passed. Even so, headwinds...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Russian inflation continued to defy expectations in April as it slumped to a joint three-year low of 2.3% y/y, which will comfort the central bank. But it is a puzzle as to why inflation pressures...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Activity Data (Mar.)

Industrial production and retail sales bounced back strongly in March, supporting our view that the impact of the earthquakes was short-lived. GDP growth is likely to have remained positive in Q1. But...

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (Mar.)

Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the...