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All-property returns set for double digits in 2022

The major change to our forecasts this quarter is that we now see strong demand for assets persisting well into 2022 and pushing yields down further. That is true in all sectors, with retail and offices joining the party, but with industrial still well out in front. That will drive all-property total returns of over 12%, following nearly 15% in 2021. Those upgrades partially reflect improved occupier market outlooks too, particularly in the industrial and office sectors, where rental growth expectations have been revised higher throughout the forecast. But the best and worst performers over the next five years are set to be retail and apartments respectively, with the former producing returns of 6-6.5% p.a. in the 2022-26 period and the latter closer to 3.5%-4% over the same period.

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