Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released Q2 GDP figures have highlighted the severe economic pain inflicted by the coronavirus crisis. The combination of fiscal austerity and prolonged weakness in tourism sectors means that recoveries will be weak. Finally, in Tunisia, Moody’s downgrade to the sovereign debt outlook echoes our concerns about the deterioration in public finances and the unsustainable trajectory of public debt.
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