Gulf countries key to regional stability

The social unrest spreading through the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will result in a two-way split in economic performance across the region. In the resource-rich countries, high oil prices and record government spending (mainly in Saudi Arabia and Qatar) should ensure a strong performance this year – except for Bahrain where political instability remains a major concern. Meanwhile, in the resource-scarce Arab countries (already affected by the political turmoil) the near term economic prospects are poor. The fall in tourism revenues, foreign investments and worker remittances will hit Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan particularly hard.