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Checking back in with our demand proxies

Our in-house demand proxies offer further evidence that industrial metals prices are running ahead of the underlying fundamentals. This helps to explain the sharp drop in industrial metals prices since the end of February and supports our view that they will fall further by year-end.
Kieran Clancy Assistant Commodities Economist
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More from Metals

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Apr.)

Global steel production fell in y/y terms in April, as all major producers bar India recorded declines. High energy costs and soft demand for steel are both likely to persist for much of the remainder of this year, hindering any large upticks in production. In China, producers will also be under pressure to meet state emission targets.

24 May 2022

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)

After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this year. That said, supply in the world ex China will remain constrained, even assuming higher exports from China.

20 May 2022

Industrial Metals Update

Weaker demand to enable stocks to build

Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen so far this year as high power costs have choked the supply of refined metals. Yet, we expect stocks to build as a weaker economic outlook for key metal consuming regions will weigh on demand, and easing energy prices should enable supply to recover slightly.

13 May 2022

More from Kieran Clancy

Industrial Metals Update

Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks

The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under prices even if, as we expect, the decline in demand for refined metal in China continues.

1 July 2021

Energy Update

Restocking boost to LNG prices to fade soon

After rising (and falling) sharply at the start of the year, Asia LNG prices have started to push higher again recently. This latest rise seems to have been driven by a rebuilding of stocks, which should run its course over the coming months. That said, the outlook for spot Asia LNG prices further ahead remains bright.

9 June 2021

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial crude stocks declined for the fifth week in a row, owing to the robust economic recovery and a further increase in inputs to refineries. With demand set to rise further, and few signs of a rebound in domestic production, crude stocks should continue to fall in the weeks ahead.

3 June 2021
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