Sluggish growth in 2014-15

After a golden decade during which annual GDP expanded by an average of more than 4%, Latin America is now entering a new era of weaker growth. We expect GDP growth to average 2.5-3.0% during 2014-15. We are most bearish on Venezuela and Argentina, both of which are vulnerable to balance of payments crises. But Brazil is also reaching the limits of consumer-led growth. Mexico, on the other hand, is a rare bright spot. After a disappointing 2013, we expect growth to accelerate next year, making it the region's outperformer. In Latin America's financial markets, we expect equities and dollar-denominated bonds to come under further pressure next year. And while the big falls in exchange rates are probably behind us, we expect most currencies to weaken in 2014 too.