Impressive recovery to give way to sluggish 2011 (Q4 09)

A combination of a decent recovery in the US and Asia, the recent pick-up in commodity prices and a resumption of capital inflows should ensure that most countries in Latin America experience a strong upswing over the coming months and quarters. At a country level, Brazil, Peru and Chile look set to outperform – all three could grow by 5% next year. But after an initial bounce, we fear that the pace of growth will fade over the second half of 2010 and into 2011 as the global recovery falters, commodity prices fall back and investors become increasingly risk averse. Argentina and Venezuela remain the most vulnerable to a deterioration in the external environment, while a drop in oil prices is likely to expose long-standing frailties in Mexico’s public finances. All told, we expect regional growth to slow from 4% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2011.