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JGB yields to rise next year despite lower BoJ buying

The Bank of Japan is on course to reduce its government bond holdings next year. But the Bank is merely reacting to market conditions rather than setting the tone itself. Our view that risk aversion will subside next year and that US Treasury yields will rebound underpins our forecast that 10-year JGB yields will climb from -0.16% today to 0.00% by end-2020.

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