Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed will raise rates three times this year, beginning in June. Monetary conditions elsewhere will continue to be highly accommodative. The ECB cut its deposit rate and stepped up its asset purchases in March and the Bank of Japan will probably follow suit later this month. Meanwhile, manufacturing growth appears to have edged up in emerging economies. The most timely data for China also suggest that policy support there is now boosting activity.
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