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Assessing the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine

In this Update, we discuss the possible ramifications for the global oil and natural gas markets of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much would depend on whether Western sanctions are placed on Russian energy companies and/or Russia decides to withhold energy supply to the West. As it happens, we think conflict is unlikely and, if it were to occur, trade in energy would probably not be greatly disrupted. That said, oil and gas prices could easily double temporarily and the impact on gas prices could last for longer. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Commodities Overview Service.

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